Cyclone Alert: Low-Pressure System Near Andaman Set to Intensify Over Bay of Bengal
IMD Issues Advisory as Weather System Gains Strength, Potential Cyclone Threat Looms
Bhubaneswar:
A developing weather system over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands has raised concerns among meteorologists, as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) warns of a potential cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal in the coming days. The low-pressure system, which formed over the south Andaman Sea and the adjoining Strait of Malacca, is expected to gradually intensify, with predictions suggesting it could evolve into a significant cyclone by the end of the month.
According to the IMD’s latest bulletin issued on Monday morning, the system is expected to move west-northwestwards and develop into a depression over the southeastern Bay of Bengal by November 29. Furthermore, it is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm within the next 48 hours as it moves towards the northwest.
However, the weather department has not yet confirmed its exact trajectory or landfall location, leaving authorities and coastal regions on high alert.
Current Weather Conditions & Cyclone Formation Process
Meteorologists tracking the system report that warm sea surface temperatures, favorable wind conditions, and low vertical wind shear in the Bay of Bengal could aid in the rapid intensification of the storm.
A low-pressure system is the initial stage of cyclone formation. Under the right conditions, it strengthens into a depression and subsequently intensifies into a deep depression. If the system continues to gain momentum, it progresses into a cyclonic storm with wind speeds exceeding 62 km/h. Further intensification could lead to a severe cyclonic storm or even a very severe cyclonic storm, depending on atmospheric conditions.
The Bay of Bengal is known for its high cyclone frequency, particularly during the post-monsoon season from October to December. This time of the year often witnesses the formation of intense storms, some of which make landfall along the eastern coast of India, impacting states like Odisha, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu.
Potential Impact Areas & Preparedness Measures
Although the IMD has not yet provided a clear forecast on the storm’s possible landfall, early models suggest that it could follow a northwestward path. If this projection holds, states along India's eastern coastline, including Odisha, West Bengal, and Andhra Pradesh, could face heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough sea conditions in the coming days.
The Andaman and Nicobar Islands, being in close proximity to the system’s origin, are expected to experience increased rainfall, thunderstorms, and gusty winds over the next 24 to 48 hours.
In anticipation of possible intensification, authorities are urging fishermen and maritime activities to avoid venturing into the sea in the affected regions. Coastal administrations are being advised to remain vigilant and prepare for potential emergency measures.
The National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) and state disaster management teams are expected to be on standby to deal with any emergency situations if the storm strengthens further.
Cyclone Naming & Classification
If the developing system intensifies into a cyclonic storm, it will be assigned a name as per the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) naming system for tropical cyclones. The upcoming name for a cyclone in the North Indian Ocean region (which includes the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea) will be based on the pre-approved list provided by WMO member countries.
Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal have historically caused significant destruction, and naming them helps in better tracking, awareness, and preparedness among the public.
The IMD classifies cyclones based on their wind speeds:
- Depression: Wind speeds of 31–49 km/h
- Deep Depression: Wind speeds of 50–61 km/h
- Cyclonic Storm: Wind speeds of 62–88 km/h
- Severe Cyclonic Storm: Wind speeds of 89–117 km/h
- Very Severe Cyclonic Storm: Wind speeds of 118–165 km/h
- Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm: Wind speeds of 166–221 km/h
- Super Cyclonic Storm: Wind speeds exceeding 222 km/h
Previous Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal
The Bay of Bengal has been historically known for some of the most devastating cyclones in South Asia. A few recent major cyclonic storms include:
- Cyclone Mocha (May 2023) – A severe cyclone that impacted Myanmar and parts of India, bringing heavy rain and strong winds.
- Cyclone Yaas (May 2021) – A very severe cyclonic storm that struck Odisha and West Bengal, causing large-scale flooding and damage.
- Cyclone Amphan (May 2020) – One of the strongest cyclones in the region, Amphan caused extensive destruction in West Bengal and Bangladesh, resulting in significant economic losses.
- Cyclone Fani (May 2019) – A powerful storm that severely impacted Odisha, causing widespread damage to infrastructure and livelihoods.
Given this history, authorities are maintaining a high level of preparedness to mitigate potential damage if the current system intensifies into a cyclone.
Expert Predictions & Weather Models
Meteorologists use various weather models to predict the movement and intensity of developing cyclonic systems. The Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are two key models that help track the cyclone’s potential trajectory.
While current projections suggest a northwestward movement, there remains some uncertainty regarding its eventual landfall.
Experts suggest that factors such as high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and low wind shear are currently supporting the system’s intensification. However, any interaction with land or changes in upper atmospheric conditions could alter its path or strength.
The next few days will be critical in determining the exact course and impact of the potential cyclone.
Government Response & Advisory
The IMD and disaster management authorities are closely monitoring the situation. Coastal states have been advised to take precautionary measures, especially in regions prone to flooding and storm surges.