Green hydrogen is often hailed as the clean fuel of the future, offering a sustainable alternative to fossil fuels. Produced by using renewable energy sources like solar and wind to split water into hydrogen and oxygen, this fuel emits only water vapor when used, making it an attractive solution in the fight against climate change.

However, despite its potential, South Africa faces significant obstacles that make the large-scale production of green hydrogen a complex challenge. Energy experts argue that the country lacks the necessary infrastructure, resources, and readiness to fully embrace this technology.

Green Hydrogen Production Requires Massive Water Resources, Which South Africa Cannot Sustainably Provide

One of the biggest challenges in producing green hydrogen is the vast amount of fresh water required. To create just one kilogram of green hydrogen, up to 30 liters of fresh water are needed. Given South Africa's ongoing water scarcity issues, this poses a serious problem.

For green hydrogen projects to succeed in arid regions, investments in desalination or water recycling plants would be necessary. Without these, large-scale hydrogen production could strain already limited water supplies, making it unsustainable in the long term.

Green Hydrogen Alone Isn’t Enough—South Africa Needs Robust Infrastructure to Support Its Use Across Industries

While producing green hydrogen is an important first step, it’s only one part of a much larger puzzle. To effectively integrate green hydrogen into South Africa's energy landscape, the country must develop an extensive infrastructure network. This includes pipelines for transportation, storage facilities, and retrofitting industries to switch from fossil fuels to hydrogen.

Without this supporting infrastructure, even the most advanced hydrogen plants could become stranded assets—expensive projects that can’t be fully utilized because there’s no way to transport or use the hydrogen efficiently.

South Africa’s Ambitious Plans to Build Seven Gigawatts of Hydrogen Production by 2030 Could Backfire Without Proper Planning

South Africa has announced bold plans to develop seven gigawatts of hydrogen production capacity by 2030. This would be enough energy to power approximately seven million homes, signaling the government’s commitment to clean energy solutions.

However, energy experts caution that these targets may be overly ambitious. Without a clear roadmap for infrastructure development and market readiness, these projects risk falling short of their goals, leading to wasted resources and missed opportunities.

Expert Insights Reveal Why Rushing Green Hydrogen Projects Could Lead to Cost Overruns and Underperformance

Drawing on decades of experience in the petrochemical industry, South African chemical engineers have analyzed why many ambitious energy projects fail. Their research indicates that projects which attempt to scale up new technologies too quickly often experience cost overruns, with expenses doubling or even tripling compared to initial estimates.

Furthermore, over half of these projects fail to meet their production targets within the first six months, highlighting the risks of moving too fast without thorough planning and risk management.

The Hidden Costs of Building a Green Hydrogen Economy Far Exceed the Price of Production Facilities Alone

While the costs of building green hydrogen production plants are substantial, they represent only a fraction of the total investment required to create a functioning green hydrogen economy. The government must also account for the costs of transportation infrastructure, industrial retrofitting, and end-user adoption.

Without a comprehensive approach to these challenges, South Africa risks creating expensive facilities that cannot operate at full capacity, leading to financial losses and underutilized resources.

Transporting Green Hydrogen Presents Technical and Financial Challenges That South Africa Isn’t Ready to Overcome

Transporting hydrogen, especially in its pure green form, is a complex and costly process. Hydrogen can only be moved through specialized pipelines, which are expensive to build and maintain, or by compressing it under extreme pressure. Another option is to convert hydrogen into chemicals like ammonia or liquefy it at ultra-low temperatures of -253°C.

These methods come with significant energy losses—up to 48% of hydrogen’s energy content can be lost during transportation. South Africa currently lacks the infrastructure to handle these technical requirements, making hydrogen transportation a major hurdle.

Converting Industries to Use Green Hydrogen Requires Expensive Overhauls and New Technology

Even if transportation challenges are addressed, industries must be equipped to use green hydrogen. For instance, the steel industry would need to replace traditional polluting ovens with new technology designed to use hydrogen, which involves considerable costs and infrastructure changes.

Similarly, converting fuel stations to accommodate hydrogen vehicles requires high-pressure storage systems and cryogenic equipment, making the process more akin to running a small chemical plant than a traditional gas station.

South Africa’s Green Hydrogen Strategy Includes Feasibility Studies but Overlooks the Bigger Picture

The South African government plans to conduct 24 feasibility studies to explore how green hydrogen could be produced and integrated into local industries. There are also ambitions to export green hydrogen, positioning South Africa as a key player in the global hydrogen market.

However, experts argue that these plans are premature. The high costs of production and transportation—up to five times higher than fossil fuel alternatives—combined with the technical challenges of exporting hydrogen across oceans, make large-scale exports unlikely in the near future.

The High Cost of Green Hydrogen Could Drive Up Prices for Everyday Products Like Fertilizers and Food

While green hydrogen has potential applications in industries like fertilizer production, the costs associated with using green hydrogen-derived ammonia are significantly higher than traditional methods. This could lead to increased prices for fertilizers, which are critical for staple crops like maize.

Higher fertilizer costs could have a ripple effect on food prices, impacting the affordability of essential goods for South African consumers.

A Smarter Approach: Focus on Industries That Can Transition to Green Hydrogen with Minimal Infrastructure Changes

Experts recommend that South Africa focus on industries that can easily transition to green hydrogen without requiring extensive infrastructure changes. For example, green hydrogen can be converted into ammonia at the production site and used to create fertilizers. Since these fertilizers are transported as solid pellets, no additional transportation infrastructure is needed.

However, even in these cases, the higher costs of green ammonia-based fertilizers may still pose economic challenges for local farmers and consumers.

Building a Green Hydrogen Economy Requires a Coordinated Effort Across the Entire Supply Chain

For South Africa’s green hydrogen ambitions to succeed, the government must coordinate efforts across the entire supply chain. This includes simultaneous development of production facilities, transportation infrastructure, and end-user adoption.

Rather than adopting a “build it and they will come” approach, South Africa needs a strategic plan that ensures every part of the green hydrogen ecosystem is developed in tandem. Without this coordination, the country risks falling behind in the global transition to clean energy.