Ecuador is set to hold its presidential elections on February 9, with current president Daniel Noboa, a center-right candidate, facing off against left-wing challenger Luisa González. Both candidates have largely focused their campaigns on addressing security concerns and economic stability, leaving environmental issues like climate change, deforestation, and water scarcity on the periphery. However, their policy proposals suggest differing approaches that could significantly shape Ecuador's environmental future.

The Candidates' Environmental Promises vs. Economic Priorities

While Noboa and González have pledged to increase protections for Ecuador’s forests, protected areas, and Indigenous communities, their concurrent plans to boost foreign investments in mining, oil, and gas could undermine these commitments. Ecuador’s fragile ecosystems remain vulnerable to industrial exploitation, and the next administration’s balancing act between conservation and economic growth will be critical.

A Look Back: Ecuador’s Political Turmoil and Noboa’s Rise

The previous elections in 2023 were marked by political instability, as then-President Guillermo Lasso dissolved the national assembly amidst corruption allegations tied to embezzlement in public oil transport funds. This crisis led to snap elections, propelling the relatively inexperienced Daniel Noboa—then a 35-year-old with only one term in the National Assembly—into the presidency. Noboa, the son of a wealthy banana magnate, inherited a country grappling with gang violence, energy shortages, and contentious debates over its reliance on fossil fuels.

Noboa's Environmental Policies: Climate Change Recognition with Economic Contradictions

Noboa acknowledges the reality of climate change and has outlined a plan for sustainable development, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance community resilience against extreme weather. Yet, his pledge to invest billion into the oil and gas sector by 2029 highlights a conflicting prioritization of economic growth over long-term environmental sustainability. His tenure has faced criticism for aggressive law enforcement tactics, alleged human rights violations, and attempts to override environmental referendum results for economic gain.

Ecuador’s Energy Crisis and Noboa’s Response

In 2023, widespread droughts severely impacted Ecuador’s hydroelectric power plants, causing energy deficits and leading Noboa to implement rolling blackouts. Originally expected to be temporary, these blackouts extended through December and may resurface in 2024. Noboa’s proposed solutions, including rainwater harvesting and storage projects, aim to mitigate future shortages, but critics argue that his reliance on fossil fuel investments contradicts his environmental commitments.

Indigenous Rights and Environmental Activism under Noboa

Indigenous communities have voiced strong opposition to expanded drilling, mining, and infrastructure projects encroaching on their territories. Noboa’s administration has promised to combat pollution and deforestation while involving marginalized groups in environmental decision-making. However, activists report increased threats and violence, disproportionate use of public force, and the criminalization of human rights defenders. The United Nations has criticized Ecuador for failing to protect activists from abuses committed by mining companies.

Luisa González: A Left-Wing Alternative with Environmental Focus

Luisa González, representing the socialist Citizen Revolution Movement founded by former president Rafael Correa, offers a contrasting approach. Though her campaign emphasizes climate change more than Noboa’s, it lacks detailed plans. She advocates for accelerating the transition to clean energy and addressing environmental inequalities affecting vulnerable communities, while still recognizing the economic importance of oil and gas.

González’s Environmental Vision and Institutional Strengthening

González aims to enhance Ecuador’s existing climate change adaptation plan by introducing new policies focused on forest management, combating desertification, reversing land erosion, and halting biodiversity loss. She has proposed creating a conservation fund for biodiversity and strengthening government institutions like the Secretariat of Water and the Ministry of Environment. Reversing layoffs from a 2020 merger, she plans to reinstate dismissed park rangers and update conservation management plans to better protect Ecuador’s natural areas.

Oil, Gas, and Indigenous Rights in González’s Campaign

Despite her environmental rhetoric, González supported continued oil exploration in Yasuní National Park during the referendum but has since expressed respect for the “no” vote outcome. Her campaign promises to guarantee Indigenous groups’ rights to life and nature, though her stance on resource exploitation raises questions about how she will reconcile environmental protection with economic development.

The Road to Election: Potential for a Runoff

For González to win outright on February 9, she must secure an absolute majority or at least 40% of the vote with a 10% lead over Noboa. If neither candidate meets this threshold, a runoff election will occur in April. Given the tight race, similar to the 2023 election, many anticipate a second round will be necessary to determine Ecuador’s next president.

Conclusion: Environmental Crossroads for Ecuador

As Ecuador approaches this pivotal election, the environmental stakes are high. Both candidates present conflicting messages: pledging ecological protection while promoting extractive industries. The outcome will determine whether Ecuador can navigate the delicate balance between economic growth and environmental preservation, setting the course for the nation’s future amidst growing climate challenges.